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論文
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沖田, 健吉
概要:
application/pdf<br />Departmental Bulletin Paper<br />One of Keynes's, contribution to economic analysis was to lay emphasis on uncertainty, as not be managed by the frequency theory of probability. He pointed out that every
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economic agent are forced to make decision in the shortage of the relevant information. Especially, they are unable to forecast correctly the future events by reason of extremely incomplete information. However, if there were no daily and special decision-making in the midst of darkness concerning future time, our industrial soceity could not develop. In my opinion, Keynes analyzed decision-making under uncertainty throughout his whole life as economist. His analytical tools probability, weight of argument, uncertainty, confidence, convention appear mainly in Treaties on Probability. The General Theory, and 1937 Quarterly Journal of Economics article. In this paper, I will study inner structure and mutual relation of these tools as follows : (1) Induction and Probability (2) Uncertainty and Economic World (3) Weight of Argument (4) From Uncertainty to Convention (5) Social Philosophy of Convention Supplement : Uncertainty and Progress of Information Technology
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| 2.
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論文
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沖田, 健吉
概要:
application/pdf<br />Departmental Bulletin Paper<br />Japanese firms have had two important features namely interlocinmg stockholding and "main bank relations", in their financial management. Since those features has worked to
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mitigate severe influences from effective capital market, such as sensitive valuation of stock price (quick responding to firms' earnings-performance) and threat of hostile acquisition, it has been possible for Japanese firms to take managerial action that does not seek the maximization of stock price. During Japan's bubble economy period, however, the merit of above mentioned features was lost. In this article, Modigliani-Miller Theory and its amendment by the agency theory are traced. In contrast with that neo-classical financial theory, it was clarified how Japanese firms has been influenced by those features in their management.
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| 3.
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論文
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沖田, 健吉
概要:
application/pdf<br />Departmental Bulletin Paper
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| 4.
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論文
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沖田, 健吉
概要:
application/pdf<br />Departmental Bulletin Paper<br />Comparing automatically organised set of medium or small size firms with vertically integrated firms that appeared in United States, Alfred Marshall finally judged that the former
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had been more effective than the latter through the 19th century. But, during the decades around the turn of the century, Marshall was afraid that international economic leadership would be shifted from British proprietory capitalism to U.S managerial capitalism, and appreciated the advantage of the vertically integrated firm. Neverthless, he believed tht the British industrial-organizationis expected to keep its conpetitiveness in the long run. However, Lancashire cotton industry has been declining after 1920 (Marshall died in 1924), and betraied his confidence. In this article, we want to analyse the reason why Marshall insist of such industrial-orcanization In relation to the success and decline of Lancashire cotton industry.
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| 5.
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論文
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沖田, 健吉
概要:
application/pdf<br />Departmental Bulletin Paper<br />Is it possible to obtain spontaneous order in our soceity? Since e
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mergence of civic soceity, many philosophers on the social system have been trying hard to give a solution to this question. Among them, we study on Hume's the theory of conventions and Hayek's spontaneous order in this article. They developed their theory on the base of criticism to the rationalistic-constructionism, originated by Des・cartes. However the consequence of test, applying the theory of game, indicate that spontaneous order is not always established, and it is needed to supply intentional design in order to realise social order in our soceity. In relation to this point, we have a short view on Keynes as realist, who has adovocated to modify social conventions.
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| 6.
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論文
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沖田, 健吉
概要:
application/pdf<br />Departmental Bulletin Paper<br />Based on Analysis of the Census of Manufactures, published by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, this article intends to grasp reality of the Japanese manufacturing
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industries, and to obtain a view point of its future. Perhaps, depending on two-years lag of the Census' figure having against present state, hollowing out or de-industrialization of manufacturing industries have made slow progress. However, when we introduce two other informations namely : (1) development of cities are influenced by growing of manufacturing industries, (Jane Jacobs [1984] ) (2) the present condition of business net work organizations in manufacturing industries clarified by various field work-surveis, the Japanese manufacturing industries will be having possibilities to change its structure drastically. Additionaly, in section 3 of this article, we states short history of Muroran City, located southern district of Hokkaido. She had been a typical kigyo-Jyokamachi or a Castle town of dominant manufacturing Canpany (factory). After losing her Lord, she has been trying hard to from medium and small enterprise net work organization.
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| 7.
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論文
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沖田, 健吉
概要:
application/pdf<br />Departmental Bulletin Paper<br />The Japanese shipbuilding industry could get the highest newly ordered tonnage in 1973,year of the first oil crisis. Since that time, it had been troubled with shortage of demand for
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shipbuilding. In this paper, the forcal point is how management of that industry has struggled with unfavorable change of market conditions, caused by radical change of socio-economic environment, and two points are observed as follows : (1) Befor the first oil crisis, there was no competitive strategy in the Japanese shipbuilding industry. Management of that industry had been misguided by the speculative ordering attitude of shipowners. In spite of having 50% share in the world shipbuilding market, they had continued excessive and useless competition among the Japanese shipbuilding companies. While the inclination to overheated competition had been gradually deteriorating their corporate power base, they happened to have to meet with the first oil crisis. (2) After 1986,according to the recommendation of the Council for the Retionalization of Shipping and Shipbuilding Industries, an advisory body to the Minister of Transport, they were compelled to reduce the scale of shipbuilding business in order to balance production-capacity with demand. In this re-structuring process, all of the big firms implemented the strategy of business diversification. Consequently, shipbuilding sales to total ratio in those firms plummeted to a half or a quarter of the peak time, in spite of the increase in total sales.
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